The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver LowerMarc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - ltfutures - 04.02.2013
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 10 higher at 143’05 and the 10 Yr. Notes 4 higher at 131’08. This morning the Bonds have rallied slightly more than a full point (1’00) off the overnight low of 142’05 (a new recent low) after a break in equity futures around 7:00am Chicago time. For the moment I am going to keep support at 142’19 given the rally off of recent lows and keep resistance in the 145’24 area. As mentioned Friday I am on the sidelines awaiting the market to trade at one of the extremes of support and resistance preferring the short side of the market on strong rallies as my bias remains long term negative. For short term traders, now that the market has made new recent lows and rallied above Friday’s settlement, consider buyer breaks with protective sell stops just below the overnight low of 142’05. Grains: Mar. Corn is currently 1’0 higher at 737’0, Mar. Beans 12’6 higher at 1487’0, Mar. Wheat 3’6 higher at 768’6 and Dec. Wheat 3’0 higher at 807’0. Friday Mar. Corn made a new recent high at 746’2 only to fail to close above the 742’0 level (the market closed 4’4 lower at 736’0) that I feel this market needs to do to indicate a move above the 750’0 level. At the moment I am looking at Mar. Corn as a trading affair between 725’0 and 745’0. I still like being long out of the money call spreads in Dec. Wheat as a long term position. Cattle: On Friday Apr. LC closed at 132.17 down 62 points and Mar. FC closed 35 lower at 149.20. Friday’s break gave us the opportunity to go long Apr. LC in the 132.00 area and we will use a protective sell stop at 130.90 for the moment. If the market trades above 132.75 either take the short term profit or raise your sell stop to the 131.45 level. Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 39 cents lower at 31.57 and Apr. Gold 6.00 lower at 1664.00. We remain long Silver.We recently took profits from long Gold positions putting us on the sidelines at the moment. For the near term support is 1653.00 and resistance 1682.00 even. Over the last few weeks we have traded from the long side of the market on breaks to the 1657.00 level somewhat successfully anticipating a close above the 1668.00 level which I felt the market needed to indicate higher prices. To be honest I am not impressed with the recent action and am going to sit on the sidelines and see what develops. If the 1653.00 is penetrated I anticipate a break to the low 1640’s. S&P's: Mar. S&P’s are currently 8.00 lower at 1498.75. On Friday this market made a new multi-year high of 1510.75. I still stubbornly retain a small short position. Support is currently 1483.00 and resistance 1510.00. Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 94 lower at 135.71, the Swiss 28 lower at 1.0995, the Yen 11 higher at 1.0796 and the Pound 21 higher at 1.5734. We have gone long the Yen between the 1.0755 and 1.0800 even level with an initial 100 point risk. To be honest, this trade is certainly against conventional wisdom which says , given recent comments from the Bank of Japan, Japan is determined to push the Yen even lower against the dollar (some say eventually 100 to the dollar) and invert their yield curve. The overnight low in the Yen was 1.0734. Given that I’m just looking for a bounce to make a small profit, raise your sell stop to the 1.0723 level. If the market trades above this mornings high of 1.0815 either take profits or raise your sell stop once again to the 1.0770 level. Regards,
Marc Marc Nemenoff
Senior Market Analyst, Price Futures Group
888.908.4310 | 312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com www.pricegroup.com Bio
Marc Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Tabor Grain Co. He quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market, and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters. In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the C.M.E. and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations and Advertising, and Orientation and Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included, Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool. In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options. Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc has also been author of the Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL.. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009. Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy. Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk and is not for everyone.The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. TRADING IN FUTURES CONTRACTS, OPTIONS ON FUTURES CONTRACTS, AND FORWARD CONTRACTS IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS. |
